Variance Kicks In

Finished clearing the $200 Party bonus last night, and my account is $100 higher than where it started. This hand had a lot to do with it:

Party Poker No-Limit Hold’em, $1 BB (6 max, 6 handed) converter

CO ($167.81)
Button ($157.9)
geekandproud ($142.05)
BB ($254.5)
UTG ($46.1)
MP ($206.05)

Preflop: geekandproud is SB with 6♣, 8♥. geekandproud posts a blind of $0.5.
3 folds, Button calls $1, geekandproud (poster) completes, BB checks.

Flop: ($3) 7♣, T♣, 9♥ (3 players)
geekandproud bets $4, BB folds, Button raises to $10, geekandproud raises to $30, Button calls $20.

Turn: ($63) J♥ (2 players)
geekandproud bets $111.05 (All-In), Button calls $111.05.

River: ($285.10) 9♠ (2 players, 1 all-in)

Final Pot: $285.10

Results in below:
Button has 7♠ 9♦ (full house, nines full of sevens).
geekandproud has 6♣ 8♥ (straight, jack high).
Outcome: Button wins $285.10.

Oh well, can’t win every hand where I’m 90% to win. That’s why it’s only 90%. The funny thing is that after this hand, the rest of the table started criticizing my play, not the other guy’s. I wish I could have caught some other cards at the table.

Seven Hundred!

Less than a month after posting about how I couldn’t throw a 700 series, I finally manage to pull it off. In the “Sunday Fun League”, of all places, but it’s still an ABC sancitioned 720 series. I started off practice with a little tightness in my arm, and my first few shots hurt a little bit. I wasn’t sure if I was actually going to be able to bowl at all. After a few more shots, though, it loosened up, and it seemed like I couldn’t miss the pocket. I wanted to display all the games here, but didn’t really have a good way to do it, so last night I wrote a bowling score WordPress plugin. It still needs some cleanup, and then I’ll release it. Here’s the result:

X		8	/	X		8	/	X		9	/	X		X		X		X	9	/
20		40		60		80		100		120		150		180		209		229

X		X		X		X		X		9	/	X		X		X		X	X	9
30		60		90		119		139		159		189		219		249		278

8	1	9	/	8	/	9	/	9	/	X		X		X		X		9	/	9
9		27		46		65		85		115		145		174		194		213

Series: 720   Average: 240.0

I also have a new high game, the 278. My previous high was 268 (twice). In the 6th frame of that game, I threw a good pocket shot, but left a solid 9 pin. The fill shot in tenth was a little light, and left the 2 pin. Overall, I’m more than happy with the game and the series. My new goals: 279, 299, 300, 750 series.

The Streak Ends

The Streak

I knew it couldn’t last forever. It was only a matter of time before I had to lose with pocket aces again. My streak was somewhere in the 60s. Over 60 times in a row, when I got AA, I won the hand. Sometimes I won the blinds, sometimes I won big pots, but they had just always been winning.

The first hand that broke the streak, and made Poker Tracker say I didn’t have a 100% win percentage, wasn’t actually a loss. I managed to get all in preflop against QQ. My opponent flopped a Q, and then the board ended up making a Q high straight. We chopped, and I still had yet to actually lose with my aces. That was yesterday.

Today, I got aces in the small blind at $100 NL. Everyone limped in, and I raised, but not enough to get rid of the powerhouse 73o in the big blind. Lucky for me, he was shortstacked. I put him all in with my $20 bet on the 456 flop, and someone else came along for the ride. When the big blind went all in, I knew my streak was coming to an end. I also knew the other guy who called didn’t have me beat, and I tried to get more money out of him on the turn, but he folded. I didn’t end up losing all that much on the hand, but my aces were still beat.

Update: Twice more. Once K4o called my raise and flopped trip kings. Didn’t end up costing me that much. Another time, a guy who had been pushing all in preflop (for about $28) did it again. Someone called in between the two of us, and I pushed for a little over $100. The other guy folded, and the maniac’s Q6s made his flush. Oh well.

The Run

My good run of cards, unlike my aces streak, seems to still be intact. Obviously, I can’t win every hand, but for the most part my good hands are holding up, my draws are hitting at what seems like the right frequency, and I’m not losing too much money when I’m beat. I had one session where I won one $120 pot, and several more around $30, and the most I ever lost on a hand was $7. Not every session was like this, and I’ve had several losing sessions lately, but they’re almost always coupled with another that’s a much bigger win.

Update: I wrote that yesterday… I’ve since gone on a pretty bad run, and dropped some of it back, but I’m still up 12BB/100 over 3000 hands at $100NL this weekend, and 17.5 BB/100 since the beginning of February, over the various NL games. Also cleared a $150 bonus and I’m more than halfway to an additional $200 Bonus.

Poker Tracker Guide

I was able to work out an acceptable DRM solution with Hdouble, and got my hands on a copy. It’s already helped me out a ton. I’ll post a real review once I get through it all (I only went to the sections I was immediately interested in: Review Your Play and Using the Auto-Rate Feature). The short review is: Get it. It’s good.

Drive Through

Mmmm… A Double-Double and fries.

Party Poker

On my new Dell 2001fp.

reloadbonus dot com

I’m my latest shameless attempt to make money off the poker boom (without actually playing more poker; I certainly play enough as it is), I have just launched ReloadBonus.com. Initially, it’s going to be a list of all the current deposit bonuses at various poker sites. Eventually, it will be expanded so users can create accounts and keep track of all of their bonus money, see bonuses at just their selected sites, and lots of other features I’m sure I haven’t thought of yet.

I wish I had more to say about it, but I don’t. I will hopefully be adding more sites soon. Go check it out.

WPBT HORSE Tourney

Many thanks to Iggy for setting up the latest blogger tourney, a HORSE event at Full Tilt. I couldn’t make it due to bowling, but signed up anyway, with the slim hope that I might have chips left when I got home. It was only $5.50, and I wanted my leaderboard points. I still outlasted 40 players, and finished a respectable 52nd, never playing a hand.

I will not be able to make the next WPBT event, either. We need to get some of these things on a Thursday night. Or screw the east coasters, and make it at 9pm pacific time. I will be heading to Vegas for the WPBT Aladdin Classic, though.

No More Rakeback

I first read about this over at StudioGlyphic, and then got the e-mail about it when I woke up today.

Hello Alan,

Unfortunatley, we have some bad news – iGlobalMedia, the software provider for all Party Skins, has mandated that PokerNOW immediatley stop all rakeback relationships with their affiliates.

This was not PokerNOW’s decision, it was iGlobalMedia’s, and PokerNOW has to go by what they say.

We, of course will pay all rakeback due through March 11th. This is an across the board decision, and all sites offering PokerNOW as a rakeback partner must take them down immediatley.

Our other rakeback provider Caribbean Sun, is completely on board with our rakeback program, many of our players enjoy huge rakebacks from them. We will also add another site as soon as possible.

We are truly sorry for this, but it was a complete shock to us and other affiliates. If you have any questions, please email us or post inthe rakeback forum, we have started a thread there as well.

This has caused a delay in processing all rakeback points from being credited, however all will be completed today.

Thanks,

Tom
Customer Service Manager
eCasinoDeals

I don’t particularly like the Crypto software, so I’m not too thrilled about having to play at Caribbean Sun to get rakeback. I just sent off an e-mail to Party cancelling my account. I’ll continue to play their tables at PokerNow (or get in on a Eurobet rakeback deal for however long that lasts), and then create a new account there through a rakeback affiliate in three or six months, when they let me. I don’t where I’m going to play in the immediate future, now. I have a bonus to finish off at Bet Holdem, and have a bunch of bonus money at Absolute, UB, and Stars. And FullTilt, but working off the bonus there is a real pain.

Any suggestions?

In-n-Out

Life, The Universe, and Everything

Fortytwo. My aces streak has been extended to 42 straight. Twice last night, I got them in the big blind, and the table just folded to me. Those hands still count. Maybe I should put up a counter somewhere here to keep track of the streak. As soon as I do that, it’ll get broken, though. I wonder how many times I’ve cracked aces in that span. I did it once last night, because the guy slowplayed himself into oblivion.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold’em, $0.50 penner4242 (6 max, 5 handed) converter

SB ($43.8)
penner4242 ($99.25)
UTG ($58.7)
MP ($99.9)
Button ($43.1)

Preflop: penner4242 is BB with Q♥, T♠. SB posts a blind of $0.25.
UTG calls $0.50, 1 fold, Button calls $0.50, SB (poster) completes, penner4242 checks.

Flop: ($2) A♥, 9♦, J♣ (4 players)
SB checks, penner4242 checks, UTG checks, Button checks.

Turn: ($2) 6♥ (4 players)
SB bets $1, penner4242 calls $1, UTG calls $1, Button folds.

River: ($5) 8♠ (3 players)
SB checks, penner4242 bets $4, UTG raises to $15, SB folds, penner4242 raises to $93.75 (All-In), UTG calls $42.20 (All-In).

penner4242 is returned 36.55 (uncalled).

Final Pot: $123.40

Results below:
penner4242 has Q♥ T♠ (straight, queen high).
UTG has A♠ A♦ (three of a kind, aces).
Outcome: penner4242 wins $123.40.

No preflop raise, no bet with a set on the flop, and only called (didn’t raise) a small bet on the turn with some obvious flush and straight draw possibilities. Significant betting anywhere before the river could have easily gotten rid of me there. Not that I’m complaining.

I think I’ve found a big leak in my game that I have to figure out how to get away from, I just don’t know how to do it. The problem occurs when I’ve got trips (two on the board) and a decent kicker, with no straight or flush possibilities, and someone else has a lower kicker but has hit it and has a full house. I just can’t seem to get away from these hands. It happened twice last night, with AT vs A2 and an A2xAx board, and KQ vs K7 with a KK7xx board. I lost quite a bit of money on both of those hands (but still booked a nice win for the night). I’m just not sure how to get away from these. If there’s a possible straight or flush out, I have a much easier time doing it, but when there’s not, I pretty much turn into a calling (or raising) station. At least I’ve identified the problem.

One other thing: I think I just might be overplaying the hammer. Just a little bit. Check out the preflop raise percentage. (Note: most of the losses below from KQo are from the hand mentioned above, and KJs were from a guy who called way too big a bet with a flush draw, and then hit it. I didn’t pay him off.)

On the other hand, if I always folded it, I’d have lost a lot more than just 0.15 by just posting the blinds. So maybe I’m playing it alright.